2011-2012 College Bowl Picks

Note: BCS Bowls in RED


New Mexico Bowl - 12/17/11: Wyoming (8-4) vs Temple (8-4)


Winner: Temple

Why they'll win: The Owls rank seventh nationally with 256 yards per game on the ground  and Wyoming ranks 111th in rushing defense, giving up over 230 rushing yards per contest. Running Back Bernard Pierce ran for 1,384 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2011.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - 12/17/11: Ohio (9-4) vs Utah State (7-5)


Winner: Utah State

Why they'll win: Utah State has won their last five games and, if you remember, almost knocked off Auburn on the road in the first week of the season. Robert Turbin ran for 1,416 yards this year and the Aggies powerful offense (over 450 yards/game) will lead them to a bowl victory.

New Orleans Bowl - 12/17/11:  Louisiana Lafayette (8-4) vs San Diego State (8-4) 


Winner: San Diego State

Why they'll win: SDSU put up better numbers in 2011 than LA-Lafayette against better competition. Led by running back Ronnie Hillman, who was third in America with 1,656 rushing yards, the Aztecs offense will exploit the 69th ranked Ragin' Cajun defense.

Beef O'Brady's Bowl - 12/20/11: Florida International (8-4) vs Marshall (6-6)

Winner: Florida International

Why they'll win: FIU won on the road against Louisville early in the year. Marshall's defense is ranked 84th in the country and their offense is ranked 96th. FIU will win this one with their defense, ranked 32nd.  Keep on eye on linebacker Winston Fraser, who had 107 tackles, 7 TFL, and 4 sacks.

Poinsettia Bowl - 12/21/11: #16 TCU (10-2) vs Louisiana Tech (8-4)

Winner: TCU

Why they'll win: TCU has won seven in a row, including a win at Boise State to end their 35-game home winning streak on November 12th. TCU's 26th ranked offense is filled with far too many weapons at the skill positions for the Bulldogs defense to keep up. Horned Frogs signal caller Casey Pachall (2,715 pass yards, 24 TD, 6 INT) will take advantage of LA Tech's 95th ranked pass defense.

Maaco Bowl - 12/22/11: #8 Boise State (11-1) vs Arizona State (6-6)


Winner: Boise State

Why they'll win: If you have to pick a "biggest blowout" for your office pool, this is one to think about. Quarterback Kellen Moore leads the Broncos high-powered offense, throwing for 3,507 yards, 41 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, while completing 74% of his passes. ASU's 106th ranked pass defense will not be able to stop one of America's best teams.

Hawaii Bowl - 12/24/11: #22 Southern Mississippi (11-2) vs Nevada (7-5)

Winner: Southern Mississippi

Why they'll win: Southern Miss is coming off a huge win over previously unbeaten Houston to win the Conference USA championship. The Golden Eagles' 13th ranked offense, led by quarterback Austin Davis (3,331 yards, 28 TD), should be able to pick apart the Wolfpack secondary.

Independence Bowl - 12/26/11: Missouri (7-5) vs North Carolina (7-5)


Winner: Missouri

Why they'll win: This game features two teams heading in opposite directions. UNC finished 2011 going 2-4 in their last six, while Missouri concluded their regular season winning four of their last five. They both have mediocre defenses, but the Tigers offense is considerably better than Carolina's. QB James Franklin is a true dual threat, throwing for 2,733 yards and running for 839 more. He'll be the difference maker in a close game.

Little Caesars Bowl - 12/27/11: Western Michigan (7-5) vs Purdue (6-6)

Winner: Western Michigan

Why they'll win: Purdue's defense will not be able to get enough stops against the nation's eighth ranked passing attack. Quarterback Alex Carder, who has an outside shot to get drafted, threw for 3,434 yards, 28 touchdowns, and completed 67% of his passes.

Belk Bowl - 12/27/11: Louisville (7-5) vs North Carolina State (7-5)


Winner: Louisville

Why they'll win: In a matchup featuring the nation's 99th and 88th ranked offenses, the Cardinals will have just enough of it to get the win. Louisville's defense will be the story of this game, which is ranked 22nd overall. Freshman QB Teddy Bridgewater played well down the stretch, throwing for seven touchdowns and completing 70% of his passes in his team's last five games.

Military Bowl - 12/28/11: Air Force (7-5) vs Toledo (8-4)


Winner: Toledo

Why they'll win: All-American Eric Page is the best player you've never heard of. The UT junior receiver hauled in 112 catches for 1,123 yards and 10 TD this season. The Rockets like to throw it, but running back Adonis Thomas (963 yards in nine games) will look to eat up the Falcons and their 109th ranked rushing defense. UT struggles against the pass, but won't have to worry about that with Air Force's triple option offense. UT's skillful linebackers should be able to slow down Air Force's option attack.

Holiday Bowl - 12/28/11: California (7-5) vs Texas (7-5)

Winner: Texas

Why they'll win: I have a hard time believing that California has better recruits than Texas. The Longhorns were a quarterback away from being a really good team all season.Their 14th ranked defense is led by defensive end Alex Okafor, was had seven sacks on the year. Texas has a slew of capable running backs who should be able to get enough production to win.

Champs Sports Bowl - 12/29/11: #25 Florida State (8-4) vs Notre Dame (8-4)

Winner: Florida State

Why they'll win: In a meeting between two massively underachieving teams, FSU's defense (6th best in the NCAA) will lead the way. Brandon Jenkins, one of the best defensive ends/linebackers in the sport, will be a high NFL draft pick. Jenkins racked up seven of the team's 36 sacks (9th most) and should be able to create some havoc in the Notre Dame backfield to contain the Irish.

Alamo Bowl - 12/29/11: #15 Baylor (9-3) vs Washington (7-5)

Winner: Baylor

Why they'll win: Fresh off of his Heisman victory, look for Robert Griffin and rest of his offense to lead Baylor over Washington. Griffin and his numbers (3,998 pass yards, 644 rush yards, and 45 total TD) get mentioned constantly, but don't overlook their running back. Terrance Ganaway ran for 1347 yards and 16 touchdowns for the Bears. Both defenses are pretty awful, but Baylor has a lot more firepower offensively.

Armed Forces Bowl - 12/30/11: BYU (9-3) vs Tulsa (8-4)

Winner: BYU

Why they'll win: You know BYU likes to throw the ball and doing so is pretty easy against Tulsa, who has the second worst pass defense in America. The Cougars use a pair of quarterbacks, Riley Nelson and Jake Heaps, who combined for nearly 3,000 yards. BYU can also play some nice defense and should be able to control this one.

Pinstripe Bowl - 12/30/11: Rutgers (8-4) vs Iowa State 6-6)


Winner: Rutgers


Why they'll win: Iowa State is one of the quirkiest teams you'll find. They beat Iowa on the road and a then undefeated Oklahoma State team on the road as well, but lost every other meaningful game in the conference. Rutgers' 12th ranked defense will be the deciding factor and should take care of business in this one.

Music City Bowl - 12/30/11: Wake Forest (6-6) vs Mississippi State (6-6)

Winner: Mississippi State

Why they'll win: These teams are very closely matched, so I'll take the SEC team over the ACC team. On paper, the two offenses look like a wash, but the Bulldogs have a fairly distinct advantage on the defensive side of the ball. Vick Ballard is a 1,000 yard rusher who can take advantage of Wake's below average run defense.

Insight Bowl - 12/30/11: #19 Oklahoma (9-3) vs Iowa (7-5)


Winner: Oklahoma

Why they'll win: The Sooners were on the fast track to the National Championship before some familiar late season struggles derailed them. However, Oklahoma will be way too much for Iowa to handle. Landry Jones will pick apart a bad Iowa secondary and the Sooners defense should play well with a lead throughout. Jones threw for 4,302 yards, fourth most in college football.

Meineke Car Care Bowl - 12/31/11: Texas A&M (6-6) vs Northwestern (6-6)

Winner: Texas A&M

Why they'll win: Each team will run a potent offense out onto the field, but neither plays much defense. A&M is a battle-tested team who lost by one point to Oklahoma State and beat Baylor by 23. QB Ryan Tannehill threw for over 3,400 yards and will be able to throw against Northwestern's secondary. Counterpart Dan Persa will have success against one of the worst pass defenses in America, but in the end, A&M's offense will be too tough to stop.

Sun Bowl - 12/31/11: Georgia Tech (8-4) vs Utah (7-5)


Winner: Georgia Tech

Why they'll win: The Yellow Jackets have five players with over 400 yards rushing and will test a very good Utah run defense. Quarterback Tevin Washington threw for over 1,500 yards and ran for 890 more. The Utes will have extra time to prepare for Tech's triple option attack, but they won't have speed or athleticism to  defend well enough for four quarters.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - 12/31/11: UCLA (6-7) vs Illinois (6-6)


Winner: Illinois

Why they'll win: I'm not sure how two teams who fired their coach were somehow good enough to earn a bowl bid, but I suppose that's beside the point. Believe it or not, the Illini were 6-0 to start the season. Despite a 6-game losing streak, they'll snap out of it against a really bad UCLA squad. Illinois has the fourth best pass defense in the country and UCLA struggles to throw it. Nate Scheelhaase's dual threat ability will be  enough.

Liberty Bowl - 12/31/11: Cincinnati (9-3) vs Vanderbilt (6-6)


Winner: Cincinnati

Why they'll win: Unless Jordan Rodgers' brother Aaron shows up for Vandy, the Bearcats should come away with the win. Rodgers struggles throwing the football and is completing barely half of his passes. Vanderbilt can run the ball pretty decently, but Cincy plays great run defense and will ride running back Isaiah Pead (1,110 rush yards, 11 TD) to victory.

Chik-Fil-A Bowl - 12/31/11: Virginia (8-4) vs Auburn (7-5)


Winner: Virginia

Why they'll win: Michael Dyer is the one star on an Auburn offense that lacks experience and identity. Unfortunately for Auburn, he's suspended for this game for violating team rules. Dyer ran for over 1,200 yards despite defenses stacking the box all day long. UVA is a solid team that is very well coached. AU's lack of playmakers will ultimately be the deciding factor.

TicketCity Bowl - 1/2/12: #20 Houston (12-1) vs #24 Penn State (9-3)

Winner: Penn State

Why they'll win: The one thing Houston does really well is throw the ball with Case Keenum, who lead the NCAA with 5,099 yards. However, Penn State has the fifth best pass defense in America and I think these players really want to go out on a positive note after all that has happened. Houston's loss to Mississippi State showed that they aren't an elite team. Penn State isn't either, but they face teams as good as Houston is all year long and they'll be ready for the Cougs.

Capital One Bowl - 1/2/12: #10 South Carolina (10-2) vs #21 Nebraska (9-3)


Winner: Nebraska

Why they'll win: If the Gamecocks had Marcus Lattimore, I would go the other way. Without him, South Carolina will have very difficult time moving the ball against a great Nebraska defense. SC quarterback Connor Shaw has performed well since taking over for Stephen Garcia, but the Husker defense is loaded with great defenders such as CB Alfonzo Dennard and LB Lavonte David. Dual-threat QB Taylor Martinez (1,973 pass yards, 837 rush yards) and the physical running of Rex Burkhead (1,268 rush yards, 12 TD) will prove to be too much.

Gator Bowl - 1/2/12: Ohio State (6-6) vs Florida (6-6)

Winner: Florida

Why they'll win: Buckeye signal caller Braxton Miller will have his hands full as he faces the best defense he's seen all year. The Freshman, who is completely a mere 50% of his throws, will be up against the 10th best pass defense in the nation. Miller's legs have gotten him out of trouble, but the Gators have speed at linebacker to prevent his scrambling. I expect Florida to load the box and force Miller to throw, which is not something he's comfortable doing. Gator running back Jeff Demps should have a nice game against a less than stellar run defense.

Outback Bowl - 1/2/12: #12 Michigan State (10-3) vs #18 Georgia (10-3)

Winner: Georgia

Why they'll win: Much like the Buckeyes, the Spartans are facing the best defense they've seen to date. Georgia ranks third nationally in total defense, allowing just 268 yards per game. Georgia QB Aaron Murray made strides this year and tossed 33 TD's. The Spartans will have a hard time with the overall team speed of Georgia. MSU is 0-4 under Mark Dantonio in bowl games, and should fall to 0-5.

Rose Bowl - 1/2/12: #5 Oregon (11-2) vs #10 Wisconsin (11-2)


Winner: Wisconsin

Why they'll win: The Badgers have possibly the best QB/RB tandem in all of college football with Russell Wilson and All-American Montee Ball. Wilson has thrown for 2,879 yards and 33 touchdowns. He has also run for 320 more yards. Ball leads all of college football with 1,759 yards and 38 total touchdowns, two shy of the all-time single season record for a running back. Oregon back Lamichael James sits in fourth place with 1,646 yards. In the last few years, Oregon has not played well in big games when their opponent has extra time to prepare. They lost the '09 and '11 season openers to Boise State and LSU and lost the '09 Rose Bowl and '10 National Championship to Ohio State and Auburn. This will be an absolute shootout, but Wisconsin's defense is just a little better than Oregon's.

Fiesta Bowl - 1/2/12: #3 Oklahoma State (11-1) vs #4 Stanford (11-1)


Winner: Oklahoma State

Why they'll win: I expect OK State to play with some serious anger after being shafted out of the BCS Title game. Each team has a great quarterback, but neither plays well against the pass. OSU QB Brandon Weeden is third in the country with 4,328 passing yards and Stanford's defense ranks 77th against the pass. Andrew Luck threw for 3,170 yards in a more balanced offenseive scheme and the Cowboys rank 101st in pass defense. The deciding factor will be Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon, who is probably the best WR in the game (1,336 rec yards, 15 TD). Nobody in the Stanford secondary can match-up with him.

Sugar Bowl - 1/3/12: #13 Michigan (10-2) vs #17 Virginia Tech (10-2)


Winner: Michigan

Why they'll win: Denard Robinson has carried Michigan to this point despite not being able to throw the ball well. When you can run as well as he can, it doesn't matter. Robinson has thrown for 2,056 yards and ran for 1,163 more. Nobody has been able to stop him and the Hokies won't either. WR Roy Roundtree provides a big play threat down field and their defense is extremely underrated. Va Tech has a great QB/RB combo in Logan Thomas (2,799 pass yards, 416 rush yards) and David Wilson (1,627 rush yards) who should keep it close, but UM wins in the end.

Orange Bowl - 1/4/12: #14 Clemson (10-3) vs #23 West Virginia (9-3)


Winner: Clemson

Why they'll win: Clemson's Sammy Watkins has 1,153 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. He's become one of the best deep-ball threats in NCAA football and nobody in the WVU secondary can keep up with him. QB Tajh Boyd has had a great season, throwing for 3,578 yards and 31 touchdowns against just 10 interceptions. The days of Pat White, Steve Slaton, and Noel Devine are gone and the Mountaineers don't have the offensive threats to match Clemson.

Cotton Bowl - 1/6/12: #7 Arkansas (10-2) vs #11 Kansas State (10-2) 


Winner: Arkansas

Why they'll win: The Razorbacks have a huge advantage in the passing game. QB Tyler Wilson has had a fantastic year, passing for 3,422 yards, 22 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. Jarius Wright really spreads the field at wide receiver for the Hogs, who will rip apart the KSU secondary, which ranks 103rd defending the pass.

BBVA Compass Bowl - 1/7/12: Southern Methodist (7-5) vs Pittsburgh (6-6)

Winner: Southern Methodist

Why they'll win: The only thing Pitt does all that well is stop the run, but June Jones runs the "run and shoot" with the Mustangs and will throw it the vast majority of the time. Pittsburgh ranks 70th nationally defending the pass and SMU's J.J. McDermott has passed for over 3,000 yards.

GoDaddy.com Bowl - 1/8/12: Northern Illinois (10-3) vs Arkansas State (10-2)

Winner: Northern Illinois

Why they'll win: NIU has a great offense, ranking 10th overall. Quarterback Chandler Harnish is a lot of fun to watch. Harnish threw for 2,942 yards, 26 touchdowns, and only five picks. He also ran for 1,382 yards and 11 more TD's. Arkansas State looks to be over-matched from an athletic standpoint.

BCS Championship - 1/9/12: #1 Louisiana State (13-0) vs #2 Alabama (11-1)


Winner: Alabama

Why they'll win: LSU won the first meeting 9-6 back on November 5th  in overtime. However, I don't think anyone in the country can beat the Crimson Tide twice. Alabama has the best defense in the country, giving up just 75 rushing yards per game and 116 passing yards. LSU's defense is right behind them at number two. However, LSU will not have the benefit of homefield advantage this time around. The game in being played in New Orleans, but many more fans from Tuscaloosa will be in attendance than in Baton Rouge. Alabama's Trent Richardson is an absolute monster at running back and I think he turns out to be the X-factor. As long as A.J. McCarron manages the game accordingly, Alabama will score the ultimate revenge.